[TW]
概括
Payoneer 確實存在一定的風險，但其業務基礎足夠強大，可以在很大程度上抵消這種風險。
該公司正在對其主要增長動力進行更積極的投資，這帶來了不小的短期利潤率壓力。
然而，從中長期來看，強勁的營收增長和控制的交易成本帶來的額外槓桿應該有助於 Payoneer 實現盈利所需的規模。
只要您了解所涉及的風險，就有充分的理由投資該股票。
支付處理商 Payoneer Global Inc. (PAYO) 幾乎自 2021 年 9 月初以來一直處於困境，在從 10.50 美元以上的高位跌至 7.71 美元的撰寫時價格的過程中損失了其市值的很大一部分。今年早些時候，也就是在正式上市幾天后，Payoneer 受到了 The Bear Cave 嚴厲的做空報告形式的負面報導的打擊。
總體而言，對該股的影響微乎其微，並在接下來的兩個月內回升至 10.50 美元以上。然而，這一事件似乎給投資者留下了不好的印象。在宣布第 2-21 季度業績後僅一個月，該股就開始失去吸引力，跌至目前的歷史低點。更糟糕的是，9 月份典型的大盤拋售（稍後討論）導致了我認為股票價格的過度修正。
Payoneer 是分散行業中的新興實體，包括 PayPal (PYPL)、Adyen (OTCPK:ADYEY)、Bill.com (BILL)、Stripe (STRIP) 等強大品牌。
做空報告揭示了該公司現在所說的背後的某些做法，但所謂的運營不當行為可能仍被投資者視為風險。
自 2021 年 9 月上旬以來，該股似乎正在經歷長時間的拋售，而且可能還沒有結束（儘管過去一周出現了一些復甦的跡象——下結論還為時過早）。
約 8000 萬美元的長期負債（認股權證和其他負債）。
儘管存在這些風險，但這裡仍有巨大的上行潛力。隨著關鍵指標每季度都在增長，這些數字最終將推動股價回升至 10 美元以上。然而，這種影響可能需要一段時間才能發揮作用。 根據 21 財年 4.42 億美元至 4.48 億美元的向上修訂收入指引，預期調整後 EBITDA 為正，銷量和接受率增長強勁，毛利率預計將保持在 75% 附近，PAYO 代表了一個有吸引力的長期主張，並具有相當大的短期風險。
強勁的遠期指標
季度收入增長
Payoneer 的季度收入同比增長率超過 40%，遠高於 15% 的行業中位數。這種實力的進一步驗證來自以下事實：支付處理解決方案行業預計在未來幾年內僅以 10.2% 的複合年增長率適度增長。當然，這些是在 COVID 之前的預測，並且在全球數字化轉型的支持下，增長速度加快了。儘管如此，令人鼓舞的是看到頂線在 40% 到 50% 的範圍內增長，而 Adyen 和 Bill.com 等玩家所在的位置。
強勁的收入增長帶來了顯著的運營槓桿，使公司能夠控制其交易成本，並在銷售、營銷和研發上投入更多資金。我們已經看到過去一年銷售和營銷費用從 22% 增長到 25%，研發費用從收入的 14% 增長到近 17%，我相信保持這些費用保持在較高水平符合公司的最佳利益水平以刺激中短期增長。在此期間，EBITDA 利潤率將面臨壓力，但該公司預計這只會持續兩個季度，預計 21 財年的調整後 EBITDA 為正。
毛利率
Payoneer 的毛利率接近 75%，是該行業中毛利率最高的公司之一：目前的中位數低於 50%，這與 PayPal 目前所處的位置差不多。正如我們剛剛看到的那樣，交易成本佔收入的百分比已從 30% 下降到 26% 以下，這使它們在運營層面具有顯著的影響力。此外，21 財年交易成本為 1.12 億美元至 1.13 億美元的指導數字代表了 25% 至 26% 之間的窄帶。
從長遠來看，可能沒有更多的迴旋餘地來降低交易成本，但即使 Payoneer 能夠將其保持在 25% 的水平，它也為管理層提供了更多的研發和促銷/廣告活動的空間，而無需推高調整後的 EBITDA進入紅色。
淨收入和收益
與 EBITDA 利潤率的情況一樣，淨收入和收益也將受到運營費用增加的壓力，但同樣，這可能是短暫的。因此，第 4-21 季度可能是一個主要的支點，但當下週第 3-21 季度業績公佈時，我們應該會看到頂線槓桿和較低交易成本的一些影響。隨著未來兩個季度之後的強勁盈利增長，這將過濾到底線。
這種對收益的暫時壓力可能是促使投資者在 21 年第二季度收益後紓困的因素之一，但它很可能是短暫的這一事實對長期投資者來說是一個堅實的機會。
當然，我們不能忽視九月的事實，引用納斯達克的話：
...季節性地成為股票表現最差的月份。
此外，據報導，標準普爾 500 指數 (SP500) 2021 年 9 月的表現甚至比 2020 年 9 月的拋售還要糟糕。
但市場在暴跌之後通常會好轉。另一方面，PAYO並沒有表現出那種彈性，這意味著它仍在努力尋找底部。
這在很大程度上促使我對 PAYO 的前景提出看漲的建議。
增長動力
我們看到 COVID 之前的估計表明全球支付處理市場將增長 10%，但最近對美國國內市場的研究表明，到 2027 年，複合年增長率將達到 15%。Payoneer 本身報告稱，交易量同比增長 29%以及每月 300,000 個應用程序，這充分證明 Payoneer 的增長速度遠快於整體市場。
這種數量增長的很大一部分是在強大的平台採用的支持下發生的，萬事達卡虛擬商業卡、商家服務等新產品都與長期增長保持一致。
儘管首席執行官斯科特·加利特 (Scott Galit) 表示，這些新舉措不是短期增長槓桿，但這些服務有可能為未來的持續強勁增長鋪平道路。
我們正在積極投資新服務。商戶服務、營運資金和我們的萬事達卡、虛擬商業卡是巨大的市場機會。我們在沒有關係、數據和全球足蹟的情況下擁有有意義的結構優勢。這些不會在短期內對增長做出實質性貢獻。事實上，他們會消耗投資。但從中長期來看，我們看到了這些新服務加速增長和規模貢獻的機會。
該公司關注的核心增長領域仍然是在線市場生態系統。在 B2B AP/AR 支付服務的強勁銷量增長的幫助下，這種特殊的努力幾乎是自給自足的，因為更大的 Payoneer 在這些生態系統中增長，其增長勢頭將變得越強。該公司正確地將其識別為“強大的網絡效應”，它將對收入產生長期的積極影響。
根據該戰略，Payoneer 仍在積極擴大其全球影響力，並通過與銀行、稅務解決方案提供商、移動錢包等的一系列整合和合作夥伴關係，加深其在金融科技市場的佔有率。
早在 2018 年，Payoneer 就已經創建了一個全球銀行網絡，為其 200 個國家/地區的 400 萬 B2B 和 B2C 客戶提供 150 種貨幣的跨境支付，其核心戰略是“與遍布全球的公司建立合作夥伴關係”。電子商務生態系統，包括製造商、賣家、物流和其他輔助服務的供應商。”
在中短期內，這仍然是他們最強勁的增長引擎，但電子商務領域的新產品、更深層次的整合和更廣泛的合作夥伴關係都將有助於長期增長。
投資者的角度
PAYO 的長期價格調整加劇了市場拋售，這是一個非常罕見的機會之窗，這是由於多種因素造成的：
一個成熟的玩家（雖然很小）幾乎擺脫了所謂的可疑過去
我們曾經支持高風險業務，這是在 Michael 和我加入 Payoneer 之前開始的。我們幾年前就決定退出該業務，但我們不再支持它，而且已經有一段時間了。我們沒有計劃重新進入它，期間。
強勁的中兩位數季度收入增長率
長期增長前景極為樂觀
充足的流動性
零銀行債務
極度低估
當這些因素相互碰撞時，就會成為一項非常有吸引力的投資。即使從長遠來看，Payoneer 也可能不會將市場領導者從其基座上推下，但市場本身的增長速度足以支持中期的強勁增長。
此外，管理層採用的增長戰略進一步將增長跑道延伸到未來幾十年。 Bukalapak 是 Payoneer 在東南亞等高增長市場尋求戰略機遇的完美例子，預計到 2025 年結束的五年期間，移動錢包的採用率將達到 +300%。
在估值方面，Payoneer 的市盈率與其較大的同行相比非常有利。相對而言，現金流倍數看起來不是很有吸引力，但自由現金流在絕對的、連續的基礎上正在改善，公司有必要的干粉在短期內探索關鍵收購，以補充或增強其產品和服務產品。
最後我要說的是，與較大的同行相比，Payoneer 在競爭激烈的市場中可能是一個小得多的參與者，但業務基礎強勁，收入快速增長和積極的銷售、營銷支出只是時間問題，研究和開發最終幫助 Payoneer 實現盈利所需的規模。毫無疑問，這會發生，但現在的首要任務是轉移盡可能多的現金，為其主要和長期增長引擎提供動力。如果您選擇對 PAYO 採取行動，購買並持有長期策略將是一個謹慎的策略。
[US]
Payoneer: Definitely Not The Next PayPal But Worth A Look
Summary
Payoneer does carry an amount of risk but its business fundamentals are strong enough to offset that risk to a great degree.
The company is investing even more aggressively in its key growth drivers, which is bringing to bear not a little short-term margin pressure.
However, in the medium to long term, the additional leverage from strong top-line growth and reined-in transaction costs should help Payoneer achieve the scale it needs to become profitable.
There is a strong case to invest in this stock as long as you are aware of the risks involved.
Payments processor Payoneer Global Inc. (PAYO) has had it rough almost since the beginning of September 2021, losing a hefty chunk of its market cap in the process of dropping from highs above $10.50 to the as-of-writing price of $7.71. Earlier in the year, a few days after it officially went public, Payoneer was hit by bad press in the form of a scathing short report by The Bear Cave.
Overall, the impact on the stock was marginal and it climbed back above $10.50 in the following two months. However, the incident appears to have left a bad taste in investors' mouths. Barely a month after Q2-21 results were announced, the stock started losing traction, sliding down to its current all-time lows. To make matters worse, the broad market sell-off that is typical of September (discussed later) prompted what I see as an overcorrection of the stock's price.
Payoneer is an emerging entity in a fragmented industry comprising strong brands such as PayPal (PYPL), Adyen (OTCPK:ADYEY), Bill.com (BILL), Stripe (STRIP), and others.
The short report revealed certain practices that the company now says are behind it but the alleged operational improprieties may still be considered a risk by investors.
The stock seems to be going through a prolonged sell-off since early September 2021 and it may not be over yet (although there have been some signs of recovery over the past week - too early to tell).
~$80 million in long-term liabilities (warrant and other liabilities).
Despite these risks, there's significant upside potential here. With key metrics growing stronger every quarter, the numbers will eventually push the stock's price back up to above $10 and beyond. However, it could take time before this effect kicks in. Based on the upward-revised revenue guidance of $442 million to $448 million for FY-21, an expectation of positive Adjusted EBITDA, strong volume and take rate increases, and gross margins expected to stay near the 75% mark, PAYO represents an attractive long-term proposition with a fair amount of short-term risk.
Strong Forward Indicators
Quarterly Revenue Growth
With a YoY quarterly revenue growth rate of over 40%, Payoneer is well above the sector median of 15%. Further validation of this strength comes from the fact that the payment processing solutions industry was only expected to grow at a modest 10.2% CAGR over the next several years. Of course, these are pre-COVID projections, and the rate of growth has since accelerated on the back of global digital transformation. Nevertheless, it's encouraging to see that the top line is growing in the 40% to 50% range where players such as Adyen and Bill.com sit.
With strong revenue growth comes significant operational leverage, allowing the company to rein in its transaction costs and spend more on sales and marketing and R&D. We've already seen sales and marketing expenses grow from 22% to 25% and R&D expenses grow from 14% to nearly 17% of revenue over the past year, and I believe it is in the company's best interest to keep these expenses at elevated levels to spur growth in the short to medium term. During that time, EBITDA margins will be under pressure, but the company only expects this for another two quarters, with positive Adjusted EBITDA expected for FY-21.
Gross Margins
At near 75%, Payoneer has one of the highest gross margins in the sector: the current median figure is under 50%, which is around where PayPal sits right now. Transaction costs as a percentage of revenues have moved from 30% to under 26%, giving them significant leverage at the operating level, as we just saw. Furthermore, the guidance figures of $112 million to $113 million in transaction costs for FY-21 represent a tight band between 25% and 26%.
There may not be any more wiggle room to reduce transaction costs in the long run, but even if Payoneer is able to keep it at the 25% level, it gives management a lot more legroom for R&D and promotional/advertising activities without pushing Adjusted EBITDA into the red.
Net Income and Earnings
As in the case of EBITDA margins, net income and earnings will also be under pressure from increased operational expenses but, once again, this is likely to be short-lived. As such, Q4-21 might be a major pivot point, but we should see some effect of top-line leverage and lower transaction costs when Q3-21 results are out next week. This will filter down to the bottom line as strong earnings growth beyond the next two quarters.
This temporary pressure on earnings could be one of the factors that prompted investors to bail out after Q2-21 earnings, but the fact that it is very likely to be short-lived represents a solid opportunity for long-term investors.
Of course, we cannot ignore the fact that September is, to quote NASDAQ:
...seasonally the worst-performing month for equities.
Moreover, September 2021 was reportedly even worse for the S&P 500 (SP500) than the September 2020 sell-off.
But the market typically takes a turn for the better after the slump; on the other hand, PAYO hasn't shown that kind of elasticity, which means it is still trying to find a bottom.
And that, in great measure, is what prompts me to suggest a bullish outlook for PAYO.
Growth Drivers
We saw that pre-COVID estimates pegged the global payments processing market to grow at the 10% level, but more recent research on the domestic U.S. market suggests a much stronger 15% CAGR through 2027. Payoneer itself reported a 29% YoY increase in volume and 300,000 monthly applications, which is ample proof that Payoneer is growing at a much faster pace than the overall market.
Much of this volume growth is happening on the back of strong platform adoption, and newer products such as the Mastercard virtual commercial card, Merchant Services, etc. are all aligned for long-term growth.
Although CEO Scott Galit has stated that these new initiatives are not short-term growth levers, these services have the potential to pave the path for continued strong growth well into the future.
we are actively investing in new services. Merchant Services, working capital and our MasterCard, virtual commercial card are big market opportunities. And we have meaningful structural advantages without relationships, data and global footprint. These will not be material contributors to growth in the near term. In fact, they will consume investment. But over the medium to long term we see opportunities for accelerating growth and scale contribution from these new services.
The core growth area that the company is focusing on is still online marketplace ecosystems. With the help of robust volume growth coming from its B2B AP/AR payments services, this particular effort is almost self-feeding in that the larger Payoneer grows across these ecosystems, the stronger its growth momentum will get. The company rightly identifies this as "powerful network effects" that will have a long-term positive impact on the top line.
In line with that strategy, Payoneer is still actively expanding its global presence and deepening its hold on the fintech market through a range of integrations and partnerships with banks, tax solutions providers, mobile wallets, etc.
As far back as 2018, Payoneer had already created a network of global banks to facilitate cross-border payments in 150 currencies for its +4 million B2B and B2C customers in 200 countries, and its core strategy has been "to build partnerships with companies throughout the e-commerce ecosystem, including manufacturers, sellers, logistics and providers of other auxiliary services."
That still serves as their strongest growth engine in the short to medium term, but new products, deeper integrations, and wider partnerships across the e-commerce landscape will all contribute to long-term growth.
Investor's Angle
The market sell-off, exacerbated by a prolonged price correction for PAYO, represents a window of opportunity that is quite rare because of a combination of factors:
An established player (albeit small) that has all but shaken off its allegedly dubious past
We used to support high risk business, which started before Michael and I joined Payoneer. We made the decision years ago to exit that business and we no longer support it and haven't for quite some time. We have no plans to get back into it, period.
Strong mid-double-digit YoY quarterly revenue growth rates
Long-term growth prospects are extremely positive
Adequate liquidity
Zero bank debt
Extremely undervalued
When these factors collide, it makes for a very attractive investment. Payoneer may not knock the market leader off its pedestal even in the long run but the market itself is growing at a pace rapid enough to support strong growth for the medium term.
Moreover, the growth strategy adopted by management further extends that growth runway well into the coming decades. Bukalapak is a perfect example of the kind of tactical opportunities that Payoneer is pursuing in high-growth markets such as Southeast Asia, where the adoption rate for mobile wallets is projected at +300% for the five-year period ending in 2025.
In terms of valuation, Payoneer's P/S ratio compares very favorably with those of its larger peers. Cash flow multiples don't look very attractive on a relative basis but free cash flow is improving on an absolute, sequential basis, and the company has the necessary dry powder to explore key acquisitions in the short term that will either complement or enhance its product and service offerings.
I'll close by saying that Payoneer may be a much smaller player in an aggressive market when compared to larger peers, but the business fundamentals are strong, and it's only a matter of time before rapid revenue growth and aggressive spending on sales, marketing, research, and development eventually help Payoneer achieve the kind of scale it needs in order to be profitable. There's little doubt that this will happen, but the priority now is to divert as much cash as it can to fuel its primary and long-term growth engines. If you choose to make a move on PAYO, a buy-and-hold-for-the-long-term strategy would be a prudent one.
